Here's the fact-check sheet. I'm way less psyched about the overall rosters this year than I usually am, probably because I'm just busy and distracted. And because I'm feeling like a huge Finding Neverland stink-bomb is about to drop on Oscar-spotters everywhere. Anyway, click over to my major-category predictions for fuller considerations of the big 10: picture, director, acting, writing, cinematography, and (the wholly unpredictable) foreign film races. Otherwise, here's the rundown on my best guesses for all 21 categories.


Who I Predicted
BEST PICTURE
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Hotel Rwanda
Million Dollar Baby
Sideways

BEST DIRECTOR
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
Michel Gondry, Eternal Sunshine...
Alexander Payne, Sideways
Martin Scorsese, The Aviator
Zhang Yimou, House of Flying Daggers

BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening, Being Julia
Catalina Sandino Moreno, Maria Full of Grace
Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake
Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine...

BEST ACTOR
Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda
Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator
Jamie Foxx, Ray
Paul Giamatti, Sideways

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, The Aviator
Virginia Madsen, Sideways
Natalie Portman, Closer
Sharon Warren, Ray
Kate Winslet, Finding Neverland

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
David Carradine, Kill Bill, Vol. 2
Thomas Haden Church, Sideways
Jamie Foxx, Collateral
Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby
Clive Owen, Closer

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Aviator, John Logan
Eternal Sunshine..., Charlie Kaufman
The Incredibles, Brad Bird
Kinsey, Bill Condon
Ray, James L. White

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Closer, Patrick Marber
Finding Neverland, David Magee
Million Dollar Baby, Paul Haggis
The Motorcycle Diaries, José Rivera
Sideways, A.Payne/J.Taylor

BEST FOREIGN FILM
The Chorus/Les Choristes (France)
House of Flying Daggers (Hong Kong)
The Sea Inside (Spain)
A Touch of Spice (Greece)
Whisky (Uruguay)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Aviator, Robert Richardson
Collateral, D.Beebe/P.Cameron
House of Flying Daggers, Zhao Xiaoding
The Motorcycle Diaries, Eric Gautier
The Passion of the Christ, Caleb Deschanel

BEST FILM EDITING
The Aviator, Thelma Schoonmaker
Collateral, J.Miller/P.Rubell
Hotel Rwanda, Naomi Geraghty
Million Dollar Baby, Joel Cox
Spider-Man 2, Bob Murawski

BEST ART DIRECTION
The Aviator, Dante Ferretti
Finding Neverland, Gemma Jackson
House of Flying Daggers, Huo Tingxiao
Lemony Snicket's..., Rick Heinrichs
The Phantom of the Opera, Anthony Pratt

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The Aviator, Sandy Powell
Finding Neverland, Alexandra Byrne
House of Flying Daggers, Emi Wada
The Passion of the Christ, Maurizio Millenotti
The Phantom of the Opera, Alexandra Byrne

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Finding Neverland, Jan A.P. Kaczmarek
Harry Potter/Azkaban, John Williams
The Incredibles, Michael Giacchino
The Passion of the Christ, John Debney
The Terminal, John Williams

BEST SOUND
The Aviator
The Incredibles
The Phantom of the Opera
Ray
Spider-Man 2

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Accidentally in Love," Shrek 2
"Believe," The Polar Express
"Learn to Be Lonely," Phantom of the Opera
"Lovers," House of Flying Daggers
"Million Voices," Hotel Rwanda

BEST ANIMATED FILM
The Incredibles
The Polar Express
Shrek 2

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Born into Brothels
Home of the Brave
Howard Zinn: You Can't Be Neutral...
Super Size Me
Touching the Void

BEST SOUND EFFECTS
The Aviator
The Incredibles
Spider-Man 2

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Day After Tomorrow
I, Robot
Spider-Man 2

BEST MAKEUP
The Aviator
Hellboy
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
Who Oscar Nominated

BEST PICTURE
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Ray
Sideways

BEST DIRECTOR
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
Taylor Hackford, Ray
Mike Leigh, Vera Drake
Alexander Payne, Sideways
Martin Scorsese, The Aviator

BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening, Being Julia
Catalina Sandino Moreno, Maria Full of Grace
Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake
Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine...

BEST ACTOR
Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda
Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
Jamie Foxx, Ray

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, The Aviator
Laura Linney, Kinsey
Virginia Madsen, Sideways
Sophie Okonedo, Hotel Rwanda
Natalie Portman, Closer

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Alda, The Aviator
Thomas Haden Church, Sideways
Jamie Foxx, Collateral
Morgan Freeman, The Aviator
Clive Owen, Closer

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Aviator, John Logan
Eternal Sunshine..., Kaufman/Gondry/Bismuth
Hotel Rwanda, Pearson/George
The Incredibles, Brad Bird
Vera Drake, Mike Leigh

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Before Sunset, Linklater/Delpy/Hawke/Krazin
Finding Neverland, David Magee
Million Dollar Baby, Paul Haggis
The Motorcycle Diaries, José Rivera
Sideways, A.Payne/J.Talor

BEST FOREIGN FILM
As It Is in Heaven (Sweden)
The Chorus/Les Choristes (France)
Downfall/Der Untergang (Germany)
The Sea Inside (Spain)
Yesterday (South Africa)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Aviator, Robert Richardson
House of Flying Daggers, Zhao Xiaoding
The Passion of the Christ, Caleb Deschanel
The Phantom of the Opera, John Mathieson
A Very Long Engagement, Bruno Delbonnel

BEST FILM EDITING
The Aviator, Thelma Schoonmaker
Collateral, J.Miller/P.Rubell
Finding Neverland, Matt Chesse
Million Dollar Baby, Joel Cox
Ray, Paul Hirsch

BEST ART DIRECTION
The Aviator, Dante Ferretti
Finding Neverland, Gemma Jackson
Lemony Snicket's..., Rick Heinrichs
The Phantom of the Opera, Anthony Pratt
A Very Long Engagement, Aline Bonetto

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The Aviator, Sandy Powell
Finding Neverland, Alexandra Byrne
Lemony Snicket's..., Colleen Atwood
Ray, Sharen Davis
Troy, Bob Ringwood

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Finding Neverland, Jan A.P. Kaczmarek
Harry Potter/Azkaban, John Williams
Lemony Snicket's..., Thomas Newman
The Passion of the Christ, John Debney
The Village, James Newton Howard

BEST SOUND
The Aviator
The Incredibles
The Polar Express
Ray
Spider-Man 2

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Accidentally in Love," Shrek 2
"Al Otro Lado del Rio," The Motorcycle Diaries
"Believe," The Polar Express
"Learn To Be Lonely," The Phantom of the Opera
"Look to Your Path," The Chorus/Les Choristes

BEST ANIMATED FILM
The Incredibles
Shark Tale
Shrek 2

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Born into Brothels
The Story of the Weeping Camel
Super Size Me
Tupac: Resurrection
Twist of Faith

BEST SOUND EFFECTS
The Incredibles
The Polar Express
Spider-Man 2

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
I, Robot
Spider-Man 2

BEST MAKEUP
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
The Passion of the Christ
The Sea Inside

TALLIES FOR PROJECTED NOMINATIONS

The Aviator - 12
Finding Neverland - 7
House of Flying Daggers - 6
Million Dollar Baby - 6
Sideways - 6
The Incredibles - 5
Hotel Rwanda - 4
The Phantom of the Opera - 4
Ray - 4
Spider-Man 2 - 4
Closer - 3
Collateral - 3
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind - 3
The Passion of the Christ - 3
TALLIES FOR OSCAR'S NOMINATIONS

The Aviator - 11
Finding Neverland - 7
Million Dollar Baby - 7
Ray - 6
Sideways - 5
The Incredibles - 4
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events - 4
Hotel Rwanda - 3
The Passion of the Christ - 3
The Phantom of the Opera - 3
The Polar Express - 3
Spider-Man 2 - 3
Vera Drake - 3

CORRECT PREDICTIONS: 63 / 97 (65%) – gah!

Past success rates in these categories:
64% in 2003, 76% in 2002, 75% in 2001, 68% in 2000, 67% in 1999, and 69% in 1998.
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