Oscar Telecast Report Card

This year's Oscar telecast was richer in its emotions and more fleet and creative in its execution than almost any of the movies that opened last year, and while that sounds like a backhanded compliment, what I truly mean to say is that I was touched and entertained by the show, moved to moments of very fond reflection on movies to which I don't otherwise feel much connection, deliriously happy to see The Departed emerge as the big winner in all four categories where it absolutely deserved to, and impressed by the candor, sincerity, and concise eloquence of so many winners.

As of 4am, I've already watched the telecast twice, and I'm sure these won't be the last. Fair enough—that's pretty much how I roll anyway. But this year actually felt special. Tomorrow or the next day, after I've caught up on some sleep, I might run through some more of the particular highs and lows for this broadcast, but I can't go to bed without sharing Numero Uno:

The Focus on Film Somehow, Oscar almost never takes this obvious lesson, but the Academy Awards show should entertain a wide audience while also serving an ambassadorial, gently informative purpose for all of the arts it recognizes within commercial filmmaking. Repeatedly, Laura Ziskin's telecast bridged the gap between insider know-how and popular perspectives by bringing the "technical" awards (which really are artistic awards!) to clear, thrilling life: through the brilliant use of the Sound Effects chorus, the multi-screen demonstrations of film editing, the well-staged tableaus of the nominated costumes, the snapshots of sound engineers and visual effects supervisors practicing their crafts in quick, clear glimpses. The montage of scenes from Foreign Language-Film winners ceded a well-earned spotlight to a perennially trivialized category, making a good case for viewers to follow up on La Strada and Z and Dersu Uzala and Closely Watched Trains. Errol Morris' opening montage of nominees was also equalizing and accommodating of a full range of nominees, ranging from celebrity actors to documentarians to composers. For once, this show actually seemed to love the cinema, not just the clothes and the self-congratulation, and it demonstrated an eagerness to explain and to share that love.

Otherwise... Hooray for Marty and The Departed and the lovely, articulate Thelma Schoonmaker, Hooray for the heartwarming win for The Danish Poet in Animated Short Film, Hooray for new Oscar winner Ari Sandel's lovely stump-speech on behalf of live-action short films, Hooray for Al and Leo's earnest pitch about Greening the Oscars and resisting climate change (which made its point beautifully without coming across as flaky or empty idealism, like Richard Gere turning on his heart-light to Mao Tse-tung), Hooray for Ellen, Hooray for deft play-along improvs from Scorsese, Streep, Eastwood, and Wahlberg, Hooray for Robert Downey Jr. shucking the TelePrompTer and cracking a great joke, Hooray to Ennio Morricone for expressing his gratitude and generosity in Italian, Hooray to Clint Eastwood for translating on the spot, and a huge Hooray to the speeches by Forest Whitaker, Melissa Etheridge, Alan Arkin, Michael Arndt, Milena Canonero, and all of the others that implied a strong sense of the winners' individual personality while also saying something clear, admirable, diplomatic, and impassioned that all of us could relate to. A shame about Jerry Seinfeld, the writers-on-film montage, the Jack/Will/John schtick, and the same old boring-presenter twaddle, but all in all, this was an exemplary telecast. A–

2006 Oscar Predictions

It's probably not healthy to dwell in the past, so in deference to this year's exciting, unpredictable races among mostly unmemorable films (meow!), here are my 2¢:

CATEGORY Picture Director Actress Actor Supp.Actress Supp.Actor O.Screenplay A.Screenplay Foreign Film Documentary Cinematography Film Editing Animated Film Animated Short Art Direction Costume Design Sound Original Score Original Song Sound Effects Visual Effects Makeup

WILL WIN The Queen (alt. L.M.Sunshine) Martin Scorsese (in the bag) Helen Mirren (in the bag) Forest Whitaker (alt. Gosling) Jennifer Hudson (alt. Barraza) Mark Wahlberg (alt. Arkin) Little Miss Sunshine (alt. Queen) The Departed (in the bag) Pan's Labyrinth (alt. Lives) An Inconvenient Truth (alt. Iraq) Children of Men (alt. Pan's) United 93 (alt. The Departed) Cars (alt. Happy Feet) The Danish Poet (alt. Maestro) Pan's Labyrinth (in the bag) D.W.Prada (alt. Dreamgirls) Dreamgirls (alt. Apocalypto) The Queen (alt. Pan's Labyrinth) "I Need to Wake Up" (bag) Letters from Iwo Jima (alt. Flags) Pirates 2 (in the bag) Pan's Labyrinth (alt. Apocalypto)

MY VOTES The Departed (alt. Iwo Jima) Martin Scorsese (all the way) Penélope Cruz (all the way) Ryan Gosling (alt. Whitaker) Adriana Barraza (all the way) Eddie Murphy (alt. Wahlberg) Seriously? (ok, Iwo Jima) The Departed (all the way) Abstain (so far, Water) Iraq in Fragments (alt. J.Camp) Children of Men (alt. Dahlia) The Departed (alt. Ch.Men) Monster House (all the way) The Danish Poet (alt. Maestro) Pan's Labyrinth (alt. Prestige) Dreamgirls (alt. M.Antoinette) Really? (ok, Apocalypto) The Queen (alt. Good German) Eh (ok, "I Need to Wake Up") For God's Sake (no, really) Pirates 2 (alt. Poseidon) Pan's Labyrinth (all the way)

Success Ratio: 15/24 (Beyond the 22 categories listed above, I was right that West Bank Story would win Live Action Short, but I'd given the edge to Two Hands over The Blood of Yingxhou District for Documentary Short.)

If I Were Right, Which I'm Not...

• The Queen, The Departed, and Pan's Labryinth will all check out with three trophies apiece, and only Dreamgirls and An Inconvenient Truth will join them as multiple award winners. (This feels like a major undersell for Little Miss Sunshine, and possibly of Pirates.)
  
  
• An Inconvenient Truth would, I think, become the first Documentary to win any Oscar outside of that category. (This actually does feel likely.)
  
  
• The only Best Picture nominee without any wins would be Babel, despite having the highest nomination tally of the five films. (That might be exaggerating things, but I still think Babel is going to stumble badly. Even in Editing, where it stands a fighting chance, I think people's objections that the stories don't hang together will pose a problem—even though that's more a fault of the script.)
  
  
• Cinematography, Art Direction, and Costume Design would divide themselves among three different films for the first time since 1999, when these trophies went to American Beauty, Sleepy Hollow, and Topsy-Turvy, respectively. (This outcome feels likely, one way or another, unless Pan's Labyrinth pulls out the upset in Cinematography, or Dreamgirls claws its way to Art Direction and Costume Design awards.)
  
  
• I will win big money in the Imaginary Office Pool in the Sky by picking The Queen to win Best Picture, assuming that the macho-techie types split among The Departed and Letters, Sunshine feels too "sitcom" (which is even worse than feeling too "TV movie," like The Queen), and people turn away from Babel to the degree I'm expecting. Also, The Queen is the only one of the five movies that doesn't have a significant detractor camp—i.e., Doesn't Make Sense/Too Depressing, Scorsese Rehash/Too Violent, Eastwood Rehash/Too Quiet, and Is That All There Is?, respectively. Let's use my older brother as a test-case. He saw all five Best Picture nominees today as part of a $30 marathon by his local AMC multiplex (that's dedication! that's doing your homework!), and he liked The Departed and Iwo Jima, didn't think much of Sunshine, thought Babel was "the destitute man's Crash" and/or "the cutting-room-floor version of Traffic," but was pleasantly surprised by The Queen, which he hadn't even considered seeing until it was nominated. Nate skews toward the Star Wars/Alien vs. Predator end of things, so if The Queen can make a convert out of him, beyond its already-established fan base of actors and Anglophiles, it's got a solid shot, right? (Actually, probably not. But I haven't pulled off a big against-the-grain prediction since Adrien Brody, and I'm ready for seconds.)

And By the Way...

Before Oscar season ends and the mood passes, at least rent Half Nelson, the best movie nominated in any category, and fork over the $1.99 for The Danish Poet, the fourth-best movie nominated in any category (after The Departed and Iraq in Fragments at #2 and #3), and tie a string around your finger to look for the fifth-best movie nominated in any category, Robert De Niro's subtly insinuating The Good Shepherd, when it bows on DVD on April 3.

A Brief Interruption in Service

Don't the people at my job know that I have a countdown to finish? Pardon the hideous interruption in my Ten Best list, which I'll resume as soon as possible. Blame some looming deadlines and academic over-extension, necessitating my first all-nighter inside my own office as a professional-type person. When I've had any time to write at all, I've devoted it to Nathaniel's 2nd annual Oscar Symposium, which I invite you all to read!

Very Brief Notes on Many Scandals

Little Miss Sunshine here, dashing off some first impressions on the way to work:

YAY! for Gosling. The Dreamgirls camp must be reeeeeeeally glum. Surely it's never happened that the movie with the most nominations isn't even nominated for Best Picture? By my count, the five movies that did squeeze into the top race only racked up 26 nominations among them—an incredibly low number, even lower than last year's 29. In 1998, for example, the Best Picture nominees combined for 45 nominations, with Shakespeare in Love getting 13 by its damn self. This downward trend is bad for Best Picture producers, but good for the Academy, and for audiences, because the categories don't repeat each other so endlessly.

By the way, speaking of Best Picture producers, how come everyone's still figuring out who gets credit for The Departed and Little Miss Sunshine? Is Brad Pitt, co-producer of The Departed, about to get two smackdowns this morning?

Nice showings for Children of Men (Lubezki!) and Pan's Labyrinth...with 6 noms, I can't have been far off with all those Pan's predictions, even though I'd counted on higher-category mentions.

Only five nominations for The Departed? And Wahlberg's the only acting nominee? That's a little bit Rod Serling, isn't it?

Here's what it looks like when Oscar truly doesn't care about your movie, though: I came thisclose to predicting against Volver (I was right when I said the Academy "might be a little Pedro'd out"); the movie missed in Original Screenplay and even in Best Foreign-Language Film. More surprising to me is the flat-out rejection of Casino Royale; even though I didn't hate Blood Diamond the way some of my colleagues did, it's a much less inspiring film to rack up all those technical nods—to say nothing of the weird Leo problem. (I didn't even hear "Blood Diamond" when they read that nom.)

I'm still waiting for someone to explain to me what Borat is "adapting" (wasn't Nia Vardalos an "original" for doing the same thing, even with a one-woman playscript in her hand?), or how Iris Yamashita didn't adapt the published letters of Gen. Kuribayashi, as the on-screen credits attest. Why aren't those nods flipped?

I don't have a single memory of the Good German score; the composers sure jacked The Painted Veil, but at least Desplat got in for The Queen.

An Oscar nomination for Click is sort of a hurtful thing, at least in the abstract, but I guess I'll take a look at the movie in an attempt to understand. Conversely, I am quite pleased for the unfairly maligned Poseidon, though I don't think its visual effects were even at the level of its cinematography, production design, and sound work.

I have to admit I'm kind of bored by the magician movies in Cinematography. The Prestige looked good but not incredible, and The Illusionist looked inexpensively fussed-over but sort of blah. I know all the reviews said it was brilliantly in keeping with Victorian palettes and lighting effects, etc., but I actually thought it looked tacky. Still, I hate to kick a movie when it's down and all, but I'm really gratified that Dreamgirls missed out in this particular category: that was one fugly movie, from a lighting or framing perspective. (I'm thrilled, though, for costume designer Sharen Davis, who hopefully has a decent shot against Devil Wears Prada's Pat Field. I think they're each other's competition.)

Am I right to have called for a three-wide category for Best Song? "Our Town" from Cars? Seriously? Did the Academy understand, or did I misunderstand, that within the logic of Dreamgirls, "Patience" represents a blandified selling out to a conservative, quietistic 80s aesthetic?

I bet Modern Fabulousity is pissed about Dreamgirls, but happy for Paul Greengrass; Nathaniel is trying to deal with the Clint Eastwood steamroll through Picture, Director, and Screenplay; StinkyLulu is having his worst fears confirmed about an uninteresting roster in Best Supporting Actress, even though I saw Little Miss Sunshine with him, and I remember how much he liked Abigail Breslin; and Tim R, like me, is ready to congratulate Ryan Gosling and go back to sleep. Even though a lot of us Oscar queens will find plenty to be miffed about, I loved that Salma Hayek, at least, was so emotional and excited.

Meanwhile, "I Need to Wake Up," but it's time that I Departed. That's All.

2006 Oscar Nom Predix: Can't Live With 'Em, Can't Live Without 'Em

Brad learns from his agent that he's less talented than Abigail Breslin

My guess is that the Academy voters and I share a problem this year of sifting out our favorites from a hefty pile of good-but-not-great contenders. Granted, we're sifting through largely different piles. Of the eight films that I can imagine in Oscar's Best Picture lineup, only one will appear on my Best Picture lineup, and two—Pan's Labyrinth and The Queen—would have to catch me on a good day to even get a thumb's up. On the other hand, even these films have their evident merits; there's little to love but also comparatively little to hate in 2006. Furthermore, in a large field of flawed successes and deeply split decisions, I find it much more urgent and interesting to debate the comedic and political psychologies of Borat or the lurking conservatisms of The Queen, Notes on a Scandal, and The Pursuit of Happyness or the meta-structural tensions both within the montage and among the stars of Dreamgirls than to speculate about any of their Oscar possibilities.


Sharon bought a dress months ago, only to discover she won't need it

Even more than in most years, Oscar forecasting feels like the wrong way to be talking about these movies—and yet, even if you can occasionally teach an old dog new tricks, it's hell to wean him away from his old ones. Plus, what did God have to go and do? Muck up the joint with the widest, most contentious horse-race in years. Has there ever been a year when Best Picture could plausibly go to any of the five nominees, and even to some films that won't make the final cut? Best Actress is the only foretold acting race; Hudson's probably a lock to win Best Supporting Actress, but It's On to fill those other four spots, and Best Supporting Actor is even more up in the air. The Screenplay categories are interesting, Best Foreign-Language Film is a frigging horse-race among films people have actually seen, and the bumptious combat for Best Picture slots is trickling down into the so-called "technical" categories. Editing will be a dead heat among most of the same films gunning for Best Picture, while the Cinematographers are, rightfully and interestingly, playing in a totally different sandbox. (Could this finally be Emmanuel Lubezki's year?)

Years ago I realized that a worm had turned, and that nomination day had become much more exciting and rewarding to me than the actual ceremony. This year, in the famous words of Daniel Vosovic, it's a motherf***in' walk-off in more races than not. From the pure standpoint of wagering, who wouldn't want to play this game? I'm not as good at it as Nathaniel is, but, like ModFab, I'm willing to bet on some wild horses this year, and I'm eager for some of the front-runners to take a spill. Since I barely care who wins on a qualitative level, I'm all about the drama of the qualifying heats and the sweaty race to the finish line. And so...


Iwo Jima officers plot a last, desperate bid for Oscar survival

BEST PICTURE
MY GUESSES: The Departed, Dreamgirls, Little Miss Sunshine, Pan's Labyrinth, The Queen
Barely Trailing: Babel
And Don't Forget: Letters from Iwo Jima, United 93
Which is crazier—calling a snub for Babel, whose momentum felt notably down before the Globe win (by which point Oscar ballots were already cast), or replacing it with Pan's Labyrinth, the movie everyone around me is talking about, and which Oscar voters would have been discovering just in time? I don't see the rabid enthusiasm for Babel or Iwo Jima that I do for the other five, and though United 93 has vehement proponents, we learned last year from Brokeback's loss that there are some movies you just can't convince Oscar voters to watch. Americans who weren't critics stayed away from United 93, and I don't see why AMPAS would behave all that differently.

BEST DIRECTOR
MY GUESSES: Dayton & Faris/Little Miss Sunshine, Del Toro/Pan's Labyrinth, Eastwood/Letters from Iwo Jima, Frears/The Queen, Scorsese/The Departed
Barely Trailing: González Iñárritu/Babel, Condon/Dreamgirls
And Don't Forget: Greengrass/United 93
My Best Picture lineup, with Dreamgirls swapped out for Iwo Jima. Even if Pan's Labyrinth misses out up top, I'm feeling Del Toro pretty strongly for the Artsy-Fartsy Fifth Spot™.

BEST ACTRESS
MY GUESSES: Cruz/Volver, Dench/Notes on a Scandal, Mirren/The Queen, Streep/The Devil Wears Prada, Winslet/Little Children
And Don't Forget: Gyllenhaal/Sherrybaby
I might be contrarian, but I'm not an idiot. This lineup has barely changed in any of the pre-Oscar awards races. Gyllenhaal only pops in if the Globe nod prompted enough people to watch Sherrybaby, and it suddenly felt cooler to vote for her than for Cruz or Winslet. But I doubt it.

BEST ACTOR
MY GUESSES: DiCaprio/The Departed, Gosling/Half Nelson, O'Toole/Venus, Smith/The Pursuit of Happyness, Whitaker/The Last King of Scotland
Barely Trailing: Craig/Casino Royale, Baron Cohen/Borat
And Don't Forget: Watanabe/Letters from Iwo Jima
Buzz around Gosling has been awfully quiet all season, while Craig, Baron Cohen, and Watanabe have only been building. So what am I doing here? Partially, I'm banking on Connery loyalists, subtitle phobics, and the easily offended to balk at the three runners-up, whereas it's hard for me to imagine any categorical beefs with Gosling. Plus, the perf and the actor have been building hype for longer than the other three. And the American History X thing happened for Norton in '98. Still, I'm having a harder and harder time leaving Craig off the list. (There's a "Craig's list" pun waiting to happen here, but I just can't make it work.)


Beyoncé stares down J.Hud in the Kodak: "To the left, to the left..."

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
MY GUESSES: Blanchett/Notes on a Scandal, Breslin/Little Miss Sunshine, Collette/Little Miss Sunshine, Hudson/Dreamgirls, Kikuchi/Babel
Barely Trailing: Barraza/Babel, Blunt/The Devil Wears Prada
And Don't Forget: Epps/Half Nelson
One way or another, we're going to have a doubly nominated film in this category, but I'm wondering if it won't be the minivan gals of Little Miss Sunshine over the international sufferers of Babel. I'm guessing that Oscar voters relate better to parents than to nannies, and better to reliable go-to stars (like Collette) than to people they'd never heard of till a month ago (like Barraza). Then again, since Blanchett has a long Oscar history of falling just short of the finish line, and since they just Oscared her for an actual supporting performance two years ago, and will have plenty more chances in the future, maybe she'll take the dive. All of these women have marked out a plausible award-season path onto this roster, but there just isn't room at the inn.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
MY GUESSES: Arkin/Little Miss Sunshine, Haley/Little Children, McAvoy/The Last King of Scotland, Murphy/Dreamgirls, Nicholson/The Departed
Barely Trailing: Wahlberg/The Departed, Sheen/The Queen, Hounsou/Blood Diamond, Pitt/Babel
And Don't Forget: Carell/Little Miss Sunshine, López/Pan's Labyrinth, Affleck/Hollywoodland
James McAvoy is screaming "Ethan Hawke in Training Day" to me, insofar as my hunch is that a lotta actors will be seeing Scotland for the first time in order to follow up on the Whitaker hype, and will discover that there are actually two hardworking male leads in that film, and they'll permit the necessary category fraud to acknowledge them. Same thing could happen for Sheen, except I'm expecting The Queen to be slightly older news, giving him less of that enticing new-car smell. Wahlberg's drop from the SAG roster isn't a fantastic sign in a race this close, while Little Miss Sunshine and Pan's Labyrinth, at least in my amateur imagination, seem to be growing coattails faster than Pinocchio grew a nose.

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
MY GUESSES: Black Book, Days of Glory, The Lives of Others, Pan's Labyrinth, Volver
Barely Trailing: After the Wedding, Water
And Don't Forget: Avenue Montaigne, Vitus
As in the Best Picture field, which might wind up speaking some foreign tongues of its own, almost any of these films is a plausible winner. It's like someone paid a surreptitious call on Oscar's preferred street-corner drug dealer and bought him two kilos of World War II (Black Book and Days of Glory), three hits of crossover box-office (Pan's Labyrinth, Volver, and Water), a finely cut European blockbuster (The Lives of Others), a recognizable star (Bond villain Mads Mikkelsen in After the Wedding), a dime-bag of "little kid pairs up with an old turnip" (Vitus), and a piece of France (which somehow always gets nominated). These are my guesses, and Pan's, at least, isn't budging, but several permutations are possible here.


Helen takes yet another call from cry-baby snubbee Michael Sheen

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
MY GUESSES: Apocalypto, Babel, Children of Men, The Illusionist, Pan's Labyrinth
Barely Trailing: The Black Dahlia, The Painted Veil, Letters from Iwo Jima
And Don't Forget: Dreamgirls, The Departed, The Good Shepherd, United 93
Apocalypto, Children, and Illusionist should all hold from the ASC guild list, but something's gotta give to make the list more Oscary. The logistical challenges and past nods for Babel d.p. Prieto should help, as should the late surge for Pan's Labyrinth. The cinematographers, though, just like the writers, can really stir things up sometimes, so it's always a fun race to track. And speaking of...

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
MY GUESSES: Babel, Little Miss Sunshine, Pan's Labyrinth, The Queen, Volver
Barely Trailing: United 93, Stranger than Fiction, Bobby
And Don't Forget: Cars, Borat
2002 all over again, with a distaff star vehicle, an indie breakout (My Big Fat Dysfunctional Beauty Pageant), and a whole lotta Spanish! I'm thinking the Academy might be a little Pedro'd out—he's who goes if United or Stranger than Fiction or Bobby makes it in. I know Borat counted as an adaptation for the WGA, but it's not really adapting anything, and the Writers increasingly do whatever they want to nominate the films they like.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
MY GUESSES: The Departed, The Devil Wears Prada, Little Children, Notes on a Scandal, Thank You for Smoking
Barely Trailing: The Last King of Scotland
And Don't Forget: The Illusionist, Casino Royale, Children of Men, Borat, Dreamgirls
Whatever my reservations about the movie, I'd love to see Last King stamp out the weak ash of Thank You for Smoking, but that sucker's had impressive staying power in lots of other races, and King scribe Peter Morgan is already getting his for The Queen. Devil Wears Prada looks a little vulnerable, but that "cerulean" speech will work its magic. A tight six-way race, with plenty of credible spoilers waiting in the wings.

BEST ANIMATED FILM
MY GUESSES: Cars, Happy Feet, Monster House
And Don't Forget: Over the Hedge, A Scanner Darkly, Ice Age 2: The Meltdown
Another seemingly stable list. Sadly for Mr. Linklater, innovative animation for adults is, for today's Academy, what crowd-pleasing documentaries like Roger & Me and Hoop Dreams were for the Academy of old. I.e., syphilis.


"Don't play that equal-opportunity 'co-lead' bullshit with me!..."

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
MY GUESSES: Deliver Us from Evil, An Inconvenient Truth, Iraq in Fragments, Jonestown: The Life and Death of Peoples Temple, The War Tapes
Barely Trailing: My Country, My Country, Blindsight
And Don't Forget: Shut Up & Sing, The Ground Truth, Jesus Camp, five other finalists
How much Iraq can one Documentary Branch take? Especially when the alternative is a whole bunch of ecclesiastical misery and flapdoodle? Those singin' Dixie Chicks and blind Tibetan children might start to look like a refreshing break from all the despair.

BEST FILM EDITING
MY GUESSES: Babel, The Departed, Dreamgirls, The Queen, United 93
Barely Trailing: Little Miss Sunshine, Casino Royale, Letters from Iwo Jima
In many ways, Casino and Letters are more conventional nominees for this group than The Queen is, but interpolating the archival footage with the dramatic reenactments was a pretty tall order for skilled editrix Lucia Zucchetti (Morvern Callar). If Little Miss Sunshine shows up here, consider its chances for the Best Picture win about doubled.

BEST ART DIRECTION
MY GUESSES: Children of Men, Dreamgirls, Letters from Iwo Jima, Pan's Labyrinth, The Prestige
Barely Trailing: Marie Antoinette, The Black Dahlia, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
And Don't Forget About: Curse of the Golden Flower, The Good Shepherd
Let's get to the bottom of this: how much did the entire world actually hate Marie Antoinette? Will K.K. Barrett's fellow production designers smile on his unprecedented access to Versailles, and grin along with his cheeky set-dressing of same, or will they all just thumb their noses? I'm guessing they'll thumb, especially since my man K.K. couldn't even get any love for his 7½ floor.


Meryl and Emily calling: "Hey, do you ever feel like Jan Brady? That's all."

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
MY GUESSES: The Black Dahlia, Dreamgirls, Marie Antoinette, The Painted Veil, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Barely Trailing: The Prestige, The Illusionist, The Devil Wears Prada
And Don't Forget About: Curse of the Golden Flower, Miss Potter, The Queen, Casino Royale
The good news for Marie Antoinette is that even when some future-past visual phantasmagoria freaks out the art directors, the costumers remain steadfast, especially if Milena Canonero is involved. (See also: Titus.) The bad news for Prada: fun for the audience, but Pat Field is more of a New York designer than an LA costumer, and they might close the ranks on her. Plus, way more often than not, the costumers break out in rashes and welts when they see a movie set in the present day.

BEST SOUND
MY GUESSES: Casino Royale, The Departed, Dreamgirls, Letters from Iwo Jima, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Barely Trailing: United 93
And Don't Forget About: Superman Returns, Blood Diamond, Flags of Our Fathers, Children of Men, Apocalpyto, World Trade Center, Miami Vice
Sound technicians, on the other hand, break out in rashes and welts when they watch a movie that isn't full of gunfire and explosions, or at least musical numbers, or at least buffalo stampedes, or at least the sound of a lot of lapping water. As in Editing, this category will be a referendum on how far Hollywood was willing to go along with the 9-11 Cinema thing, and it's also where a lot of expensive underperformers (see: that entire list at the end) will try to save a tiny bit of face.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
MY GUESSES: Apocalypto, Babel, Blood Diamond, The Painted Veil, The Queen
Barely Trailing: Little Children, The Illusionist, The Da Vinci Code, Notes on a Scandal
And Don't Forget About: Apocalypto, Flags of Our Fathers, Letters from Iwo Jima, The Fountain
The double nominations for brilliant upstart Alexandre Desplat (The Painted Veil and The Queen) are probably wishful thinking, but since John Williams didn't compose a single score this year, the roster has already tipped into the realms of the unreal. Inevitably, there will be at least one genuflection toward old bores (Horner, Howard, Zimmer) recycling old tricks. The branch has typically been up and down on Philip Glass (The Illusionist and Notes on a Scandal), and virtually alone in its skepticism toward Eastwood. Another category that won't look much like any of the other ones, I'm guessing. Which is a good thing.


[Just waking y'all up for the final laps here...]

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
MY GUESSES: "I Need to Wake Up"/An Inconvenient Truth, "Listen"/Dreamgirls, "Love You, I Do"/Dreamgirls, "The Song of the Heart"/Happy Feet, "Til the End of Time"/Little Miss Sunshine
Barely Trailing: The choice for a three-wide category
And Don't Forget About: "Never Gonna Break My Faith"/Bobby, "A Father's Way"/The Pursuit of Happyness, "Patience"/Dreamgirls, "Circle in the Sand"/Friends with Money
Just last year, the songwriters made a rare acknowledgment of what the rest of us already know: many of the tunes nominated from year to year are bilgewater. Contractually, the voters don't have to assemble a full list of five nominees, and in that scenario, any of the leading contenders could be the ones to drop. The exception, I think, is Etheridge. She seems like the sort of gal the Academy would love to host onstage for the evening—though with, Ellen DeGeneres hosting, you can count on someone at FoxNews to gripe, "The telecast was full of lesbians!"

BEST MAKEUP
MY GUESSES: Apocalypto, Pan's Labyrinth, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Barely Trailing: The Prestige
And Don't Forget About: X-Men: The Last Stand, The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause, Click
Now, everyone turn your secret decoder rings at once, and you'll find that this category is actually called "Most Makeup" (Men in Black and Mrs. Doubtfire won) or, in alternating years, "Movies We Liked Anyway" (Frida and Elizabeth won). Three of the seven finalists feel like awfully weak sauce to designate as "Oscar nominated films," even in a category this far below the fold. As with the composers, the Makeup artists can narrow the field from three to two if they aren't feeling the magic.

BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING
MY GUESSES: Cars, Casino Royale, Flags of Our Fathers, Miami Vice, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Barely Trailing: Superman Returns, Letters from Iwo Jima, Children of Men
And Don't Forget About: The Departed, Apocalpyto, World Trade Center
Meanwhile, the sound-effects editors got a bee in their collective bonnet this year and decided they wanted five nominees instead of the historical three, and that they weren't tipping their hand anymore with a published list of semi-finalists. So, it's anyone's guess. If they really want to stake a claim for this category, they'll want to differentiate the list from the Best Sound roster. Miami Vice certainly deserves a nod for all that heavy ballistic action.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
MY GUESSES: Eragon, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest, Superman Returns
Barely Trailing: Night at the Museum
And Don't Forget About: X-Men: The Last Stand, Poseidon, Casino Royale
When movies as cheesy as The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe and Dragonheart can roll into this category, the path looks well-paved for ersatz junk like Eragon to squeak by (though the reviews I skimmed did seem to feel like the dragon was an accomplishment). Night at the Museum is at least a bigger hit, which should help, as should Casino Royale's status as by far the most critically dignified title on this list.


The average Oscar voter, aghast at his Shortbus screener

SO, IF ALL OF THIS CAME TO PASS...
NOMINATION LEADERS: Dreamgirls (9), The Departed (7), Little Miss Sunshine (7), Pan's Labyrinth (7), The Queen (6)
Barely Trailing: Babel (5), Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (5), Apocalypto (3), Letters from Iwo Jima (3), Little Children (3), Notes on a Scandal (3), Volver (3), Cars (2), Casino Royale (2), Children of Men (2), The Devil Wears Prada (2), Happy Feet (2), An Inconvenient Truth (2), The Last King of Scotland (2), The Painted Veil (2)
And Don't Forget About: The Black Dahlia, Blood Diamond, Eragon, Flags of Our Fathers, Half Nelson, The Illusionist, Marie Antoinette, Miami Vice, Monster House, The Prestige, The Pursuit of Happyness, Superman Returns, Thank You for Smoking, United 93, Venus, and the one-offs in Foreign-Language Film and Documentary Feature (1)
Unloved: Bobby, Borat, The Good Shepherd, Stranger Than Fiction, World Trade Center

Come back on Tuesday morning, after 5:30am PST (that's 7:30am in Chicago), and we'll find out how I did, shall we?

(Images © 2006 Paramount Vantage; © 2006 MGM Pictures; © 2006 Warner Bros. Pictures; © 2006 Dreamworks Pictures; © 2006 Miramax Films; © 2006 Fox Searchlight Pictures; © 2006 20th Century Fox; © 2006 Sony Entertainment; and © 2006 Picturehouse Entertainment)

I Haven't Reviewed the Globes...

...because a) I'm busy running up against the cold, icy surface of a deadline for a review of an actual movie, to be printed in an actual magazine, and b) I can't think of a single nice thing to say about that plodding telecast. Okay, here's one: Meryl Streep is a luminous, generous person to use her time onstage to call attention to the smaller films that most need this kind of exposure on awards shows. And she was characteristically funny and impromptu besides—even though I'd hoped she'd get more suited up to her Prada occasion. Truly, I can't figure out why this woman, so vividly alive on screen and in her speeches, is so hellbent on washing herself out with her outfits.

That glowing compliment came with a backhanded chaser, so here's one more nice thing: I guess it's kind of fun that we have no idea who the Best Picture winner at the Oscars will be. And here's a third: genius composer Alexandre Desplat won a well-deserved honor last night, and I even predicted his success, so my happiness for him comes accessorized with bragging rights for myself. Sublimity. I don't care about the TV awards, but America Ferrara classed up the joint and made everybody cry. Lastly, Emily Blunt looked fabulous, even though she sounded... a little... odd.

From there onward, it sours. Dypso stars who were boring drunks or nasty drunks or stupid drunks instead of what the Globes are designed to provide: fizzy, charming drunks. A raft of uninspiring winners. (If that patchy, repetitive script of The Queen rakes in one more prize...) A disappointing moment in the spotlight from Forest Whitaker, though I can at least respect a modest man who gets overcome by this much adulatory attention, this late in an admirable career. Still, he is an actor. Whip it together, Forest! And you, too, John Lasseter, hollering "Animation is awesome!" as though you're Napoleon Dynamite minus the irony, and as though Cars were anything but a well-made and well-intentioned Pixar film minus the cleverness and the warmth.

The night's worst moment by far offered us brand-new evidence that America's "beloved" and "classy" and "decent" Tom Hanks is not above asking for a show of hands of Warren Beatty's past lovers, right there in front of his wife. (One insanely old Hollywood joke + one deeply insensitive and sexist ploy + a head that has literally, visibly swollen + a thousand childish invocations of the word "balls" = can someone please fire Tom Hanks?) Mirren and Hudson barreled onward as surefire Oscar bets despite a proficient but finally uninteresting characterization from the former and, from the latter, a striking and often powerful vocal recital stitched to a stolid, wholly uninteriorized performance. Jennifer Hudson is a formidable singer, a cheering and pretty incredible success story, and from all appearances a very nice and decent person, but is she any more suited to the screen than Julia Roberts was to the stage? Shouldn't some acting be involved in a prize-winning acting performance?

My inner grouch gets grouchier when it comes to the fashions, since even the anointed favorites of the night (bland but fussy Felicity Huffman, pretty but way way way too pink Drew Barrymore, Mattel-inspired Reese Witherspoon) left me cold, cold, cold.

Either last night was a notably joyless and slipshod Globes ceremony, or, as Sandra Bernhard said, "The critics are right; I am a petty, bilious girl." Perhaps both. For me, the question is this: if the Globes got me down this bad, how can I anticipate February 25 with anything beyond dread, or worse, a casual indifference? Have I been hijacked into some anti-Oscar deprogramming regimen without realizing it? Is this what it feels like to wander from the flock?

Global Warming

Snow is actually falling in Chicago today, which is distracting me at least a little bit from the planet's recent impersonation of an E-Z Bake oven. It's a shallow, meaningless distraction, but I'm taking whatever I can get. So, for once, I'm not ranting about that kind of global warming. I mean Golden Global warming, the heat and hum of Hollywood awards season as it shifts into fourth gear. The mists of Oscar's inscrutable affinities should start to clear after tonight's wacky-tacky awards, but even better, we'll be treated to all kinds of sippy and slap-happy stars, Meryl Streep and Borat (surely in character) will Bring the Funny in their inevitable acceptance speeches, the TV stars will wish they were in more movies, and the movie stars will wish more people would turn off their damn TVs. Bizarre incompatibles will fumble their way through their loopy seating assignments (remember Ryan Phillippe with Shirley MacLaine last year?), and the world will grind to a halt for the approximately 8 hours it will take to congratulate Warren Beatty for work he accomplished decades ago.

In my life, a TV is sort of a computer monitor in service of my DVD player and VCR, so I've got nothing in the way of predictions and preferences in those categories, and I durn't care. Being the Bermuda Triangle of television reception also requires me to be away from my own house in order to watch the ceremony, so with florid regret, I won't be popping into ModFab's live chat. Instead, I'll be hanging out with some colleagues from work, thanking Babel for the excuse to eat sloppy burritos and sushi and couscous all at the same time, and expecting these nominees to come away with more than a champagne hangover:

BEST PICTURE (DRAMA) I'm going to go out on a limb and guess The Queen, even though most signs point toward a victory for The Departed, which deserves to win by a wide, wide margin.

BEST PICTURE (MUSICAL/COMEDY) ModFab and Nathaniel are feeling sanguine about underdog Little Miss Sunshine, but I'll be surprised if the HFPA doesn't recognize its own mirror image in the chintzy but delicious Dreamgirls. I gave every one of these nominees a B– (save the execrable Thank You for Smoking), so I barely care who wins, though my weather-vane inclines slightly toward the anarchic energies of Borat.

BEST DIRECTOR Eastwood for Iwo Jima is a dark horse worth worrying about, but I'm still guessing, and hoping, that Martin Scorsese has a safe lead. These are the two most deserving candidates, so it's hard to imagine things going too, too wrong.

BEST ACTRESS (DRAMA) Does anyone think Helen Mirren might win? My tea leaves tell me she is going to just eke it out over Maggie Gyllenhaal in Sherrybaby. Kidding, of course, but I'm not kidding when I say that Gyllenhaal would get my vote, unless the balloting caught me having a soft spot for the wonderful Penélope Cruz. (I know everyone's all about Mirren and Dench this year, but I don't get the fuss about either of their performances.)

BEST ACTOR (MUSICAL/COMEDY) I th

BEST ACTOR (DRAMA) The HFPA seems like the right organization to go along with the Peter O'Toole renaissance. The big payoff for telecast viewers if O'Toole wins is that we'd have a royal flush of funny, funny people winning all the top acting prizes. Venus hasn't opened in Chicago yet, so I can't say how I'd feel qualitatively about an O'Toole victory, but Whitaker (my pick), Smith, and DiCaprio in The Departed already set a high bar for this race.

BEST ACTRESS (MUSICAL/COMEDY) Never mind that my favorite here was Annette Bening, to whom I am usually pretty indifferent. If you can't see that Meryl Streep has this one sewn up, take a hint from Miranda Priestly and go "bore someone else with the details of your incompetence." Meanwhile, here is the most burning question I have about this year's Globes: what does one wear to accept a trophy for Prada? Play to the rafters, Meryl.

BEST ACTOR (MUSICAL/COMEDY) I supp

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS With any luck, Jennifer Hudson will sing her acceptance speech, since she's so much more alive when she's belting and wailing. With any real luck, Emily Blunt or Adriana Barraza would pull an upset, but while I'm hoping for that to happen, I'll also keep my fingers crossed for a tree that grows real money, an eighth day in the week, and an evacuation of American troops from Iraq.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Eddie Murphy manages the neat trick in Dreamgirls of playing a show-stopping, scene-stealing character without actually trying to steal and stop the movie. In my own mind, this gives him a slight edge over the potent and reliable Mark Wahlberg. For the Globes voters, I'm hoping he clears the serious threats posed by Jack Nicholson and even Brad Pitt.

BEST ACTOR (MUSICAL/COMEDY) It seems to me th

BEST SCREENPLAY Just like in the Best Picture category, The Departed so outclasses the rest of this field that it's hard for me to understand why there is a competition, and even harder to understand why the HFPA probably won't go for it. I think it's safe to discount Little Children and Notes on a Scandal as aspirants. My instinct here tells me the same thing as in Best Picture (Drama)—that The Queen's shelf of awards is about to get a lot more crowded—but this is also Babel's best shot for a win, and presumably the HFPA doesn't want to send their leading nominee home empty-handed.

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM I still expect Pan's Labyrinth to manifest some real presence on the Oscar roster, and it will surely make a game attempt at this prize. Still, I can already hear the tinkly piano in the hotel ballroom as Clint swipes the win for Letters from Iwo Jima. Like most Americans, I haven't had any opportunity to see The Lives of Others, but among the other four, Letters would certainly be my pick.

BEST ANIMATED FILM Happy Feet, I guess, but for an organization that bestowed Best Picture awards on Beauty and the Beast and The Lion King, what's with the ghettoization? Maybe, in a year where even the trailers of all the computer-animated movies made me crazy, I'm especially averse to singling out the format for special recognition. Plus, Monster House obviously won't win, even though it was better integrated and more satisfying than the two blockbusters.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE The Globes voters, bless them, are much more willing to go out on an unpredictable limb in this category than the AMPAS composers are. Maybe it's silly to predict againt Babel, since this is another promising arena for saving that picture from a possible 0-for-7 batting average. Still, I'm licking my finger, testing the wind, and sensing an upset blowing in from the East for The Painted Veil. I'd be fine with that, though a win for Clint Mansell's majestically ethereal mood music for The Fountain would make my heart leap.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG Y'all better let the girl sing and give her a blue ribbon, or her daddy will have your asses on the phone in the middle of the night. Seriously, you best know whom you're dealing with. Matthew isn't going to start it with Meryl, especially if he saw Prada, but don't think he won't knock you and Prince if his daughter loses to a limping song about penguins. A father's way, indeed.

BEST ACTOR (MUSICAL/COMEDY) I'm sorry, I keep falling asleep when I try to think about this category. I cannnnnn Yikes! It's coming on again! I'mmmm sure Sacha Baron Cohen willlllll [Blacks out]

(Image © 2006 Canal+/Miramax Films)

The Good, the Bad, and the NBR

The National Board of Review, once upon a time the closest thing to a ratings board for Hollywood movies, is now a diaphanous and fairly dubious group who nonetheless bestow the first major awards in the pre-Oscar qualifying heats. Every year, we awards trackers lend them further and false credibility by continuing to predict, await, scrutinize, and discuss their choices. Yes, it's a silly ritual with no valid defenses—auguring only for the future silliness of the Golden Globes and the Oscars, and not always very accurately. But no, we can't help it, and yes, we frigging love it. So, winners and responses:

Best Film: Letters from Iwo Jima This movie may well be wonderful, and God knows there isn't a strong case to be made for many of its competitors among already-released movies. Eastwood's Mystic River also won here, and Million Dollar Baby was a big hit with this group in 2004. Still, Eastwood's recent run of awards success has made him seem like old hat, and his increasingly divisive status among audiences and Oscar-hawks, plus the lack of an existing fan-base for Letters until it opens on December 20, are likely to make this an unpopular NBR win.

Honor Roll of Runners-Up: Babel, Blood Diamond, The Departed, The Devil Wears Prada, Flags of Our Fathers, The History Boys, Little Miss Sunshine, Notes on a Scandal, and The Painted Veil I'm surprised by the rousing favor shown to Edward Zwick's Blood Diamond, both despite and because of the embarrassing fact that the NBR was equally kind three years ago to Zwick's The Last Samurai (Best Director and runner-up for Best Picture). Samurai's reviews were middling and Diamond's have mostly been awful, but this strange affinity persists. Most of the rest of this list is predictable for this group, which means it is dispiriting in the extreme, and virtually incoherent outside of studio allegiance. I'm sorry to see the mediocrity of Flags get bestowed with a medal of honor, and however much fun their performances are, it's hard for me to imagine endorsing The Devil Wears Prada or Notes on a Scandal as films. Still, in a bum year, it's hard to be too critical.

Top Independent Films: Akeelah and the Bee, Bobby, Catch a Fire, Copying Beethoven, A Guide to Recognizing Your Saints, Half Nelson, The Illusionist, Lonesome Jim, Sherrybaby, 10 Items or Less, and Thank You for Smoking Invariably a strange and qualitatively variable list, ranging from the exceptional (Half Nelson) to the proficient (Akeelah, Guide, Sherrybaby) all the way to the dolorous and overrated (Bobby, Catch a Fire, Illusionist, Thank You for Smoking). I walked to the theater twice to become the only person on my block who saw Copying Beethoven, and both times I turned around, unable to commit. Now I'll never know. 10 Items or Less is currently playing downtown, but I am telling you, I'm not going. There's just no way. There's noooo way.

Best Director: Martin Scorsese, The Departed Hopefully the beginning of a good roll for Marty. I actually have a hard time seeing anyone but him winning Best Director. The Departed's three biggest threats for Best Picture are probably Dreamgirls, Letters from Iwo Jima, and The Queen, but I think Scorsese is certain to trump Condon, Eastwood, or Frears even if their movies win.

Best Actress: Helen Mirren, The Queen Neither the film nor the performance struck me as digging very deep or accomplishing very much. An Oscar for Mirren seems pretty inevitable; I'm hoping that it isn't, but if not her, who? Cruz can't beat her. Dench can't. Streep would be a major, major upset.

Best Actor: Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland One of my favorite NBR picks, especially since this group seems tailor-made for the Peter O'Toole and Will Smith camps. Whitaker was sensational in Scotland, but the buzz was flagging due to the picture's middling performance. This prize ought to keep him near the head of the pack.

Best Supporting Actress: Catherine O'Hara, For Your Consideration Not a supporting performance, really, but a very funny and proficient one, especially given her saggy vehicle. Is this how she'll stay categorized throughout the season?

Best Supporting Actor: Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond I've been calling Hounsou a contender for months. Oddly, now that he's actually won something and people are calling it a surprise, I feel less sure than ever that he'll be an Oscar nominee: the NBR doesn't have a great track record in the Supporting races, and as stated above, they're such an easy lay for Zwick movies that this citation feels less than sincere. Still, it's a wide-open race, and any awards recognition can help (especially if you're a past Oscar nominee, like Hounsou is). An extra fun twist: after 2001, when the Berry and Washington wins sparked this absurd furor of "OH MY GOD, ALL THE WINNERS ARE BLACK!!!", I can only imagine how the media will hyperventilate about TWO actors playing African men being awards contenders in the same year... a "trend," surely?

Best Foreign Language Film: Volver Not the most exciting or creative pick, but it's a very agreeable movie, and there hasn't been much auspicious competition this year.

Best Documentary Feature: An Inconvenient Truth Not the most exciting or creative pick, but it's a topical and informative movie, and there hasn't been much auspicious competition this year.

Best Animated Feature: Cars Not the most exciting or creative pick, but it's a very profitable movie, and there hasn't.... hey wait, AGAIN? (I hope one of the other groups goes for A Scanner Darkly, which at least pushes the bounds of animation a lot further than Cars does, or else the deliciously macabre and beautifully designed Monster House.)

Best Ensemble Cast: The Departed My second trip through this movie today only confirmed that it deserves every Ensemble Cast award in sight. Damon, DiCaprio, Wahlberg, Farmiga, Sheen, Baldwin, Winstone, Anderson, O'Hara, Rolston, Dale... all of them sensational. And even though Jack begs too much for attention and affection, he fit the piece better on second look than he did on the first.

Best Original Screenplay: Stranger Than Fiction One of two unforgivable citations. An unfunny, unromantic "romantic comedy" that can't even make sense of its own devices (is Harold real or not?) or keep track of a tiny ensemble (who is Queen Latifah playing?) or live up to its basic conceptions (shouldn't Karen's novel sound better than things I ordered from Arrow Book Club in fifth grade?). And this is the NBR's pick for the best-written movie of the year. Stranger than fiction, indeed, and also more outrageous.

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Painted Veil Brought to you by Ron Nyswaner, the genius craftsman who wrought for us Tom Hanks' florid exegesis on opera in Philadelphia. But, I haven't seen The Painted Veil, so maybe this honor is deserved. (What, I don't sound convinced?)

Breakthrough Performance Female – Tie: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls and Rinko Kikuchi, Babel I found Kikuchi serviceable but a little opaque, and if her character weren't deaf, I wonder if she'd be receiving all this praise. As for Hudson... I really want Dreamgirls to knock me over when it comes. Really, I do. But I keep being underwhelmed by the appetizers: I don't like the trailer, I don't love "Listen," and Hudson's take on "And I Am Telling You, I'm Not Going" sounds over-rehearsed and bizarrely phrased, like someone trying awfully hard not to recycle an earlier and still-definitive rendition. Maybe watching her perform it will help. Serve me these words on a saucer if I'm wrong. But the hype on Hudson is starting to feel like homework: "You're gonna love me!" indeed.

Breakthrough Performance (Male): Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson Will any of the other critics' groups have the gumption to cede Best Actor to him? I have hope for the NYFCC, at least. Hilary Swank started here for Boys Don't Cry, then conquered the Manhattanites, and finally rode her momentum all the way to Oscar. No one since has so fully deserved to repeat that trajectory as Gosling does.

Best Directorial Debut: Jason Reitman, Thank You for Smoking The other unforgivable award, not just because Smoking is so smug and empty, but because the direction is the worst part: indulging some actors while neglecting others, and supervising one of the ugliest-looking comedies in some time. Still, the movie made money, so here's a trophy. And it's from the people who gave the same prize to Garden State, against which most of the same complaints could be lodged, so go figure.

Freedom of Expression Award: Water and World Trade Center For so handsomely beautifying and simplifying complex cultural problems, though at least Water offered some stirring scenes and one exceptional performance along the way.

Get Outta Our Face Award: Apocalypto, Borat, Fast Food Nation, The Good German, The Good Shepherd, Hollywoodland, Little Children, The Pursuit of Happyness, United 93, and Venus Little Children especially seems like the NBR's cuppa, and In the Bedroom was a big hit with them, so Todd Field can't be happy. (But then, judging from his movies, is he ever?) People will say Dreamgirls lost out big here, too, which is pretty true... and yet, the Hudson nod isn't negligible, and bear in mind that the NBR also "snubbed" the Lord of the Rings trilogy. Boy did that kill some Oscar momentum.

(Images © 2006 Warner Bros.; © 2006 Lions Gates Films/Starbucks Entertainment; © 2006 Fox Searchlight Pictures; © 2006 Sony Pictures Classics; and © 2006 ThinkFilm)